The May 1, 2011 mission to find Osama Bin Laden has become one of the most celebrated military mission planning successes in recent memory due to the utilization of a little-known and seldom-used practice called the Red Team.
The mission was a daring raid executed by the courageous members of the U.S. Navy SEAL DEVGRU, also known as SEAL Team Six, especially when considering the potentially disastrous political and diplomatic consequences that would have occurred had the mission failed. In spite of the dangers, the odds, and the loss of one of the two Blackhawk helicopters that delivered the SEALs to the target, the mission to get Bin Laden was an extraordinary mission planning success that continues to inspire awe. The Bin Laden mission was executed by some of the finest warriors that history has ever known. However, aside from skill in the profession of arms, it was the overall tactical planning process that went into the mission that provides an important lesson for planners in all fields – in military, business, or in everyday life.The Overconfidence Bias
We fall in love with the plans we make. Mission planning is much like giving birth to a child. When the plan is complete, whether developed by an individual or a collaborative team, the planners can step back and congratulate themselves on the genius of the plan that they have created — such overconfidence is one of many cognitive biases we humans fall prey to.This is why the practice of utilizing a Red Team is necessary. A Red Team is a simple means to overcome the overconfidence bias and the theory of “groupthink,” the need for groups to seek conformity and unanimity in planning and decision making. The mission planning effort that went into the Bin Laden mission was the detailed product of many different planners, but that alone was not enough to ensure success. The tactical planning process had to be subjected to a Red Team.